Nuclear Energy: Technology Roadmap

The probability of generating almost one quarter of global electricity from nuclear power by 2050 and contributing significantly to cutting greenhouse gas emissions was the highlight of the Nuclear Energy Technology Roadmap, presented by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on June 16 at the East Asia Climate Forum in Seoul.  Obviously, this will require the acceleration of the current global nuclear capacity for generating electricity from 370 GW to 1,200 GW, which represents an increase from 14 percent to 24 percent.  Just to put this projection into a proper perspective, it is not just a simple jump of 10 percent in the generation of world nuclear electricity but this projection is designed very carefully taking into consideration the anticipated electricity demand when the world population is estimated to be 9.1 billion in 2050.  This is indeed a colossal undertaking.

China, India, and South Korea, participating countries, at the G8 Summit at Japan in 2008, had requested the IEA to prepare roadmaps for advanced innovative energy technologies for urgently deploying and fostering clean energy around the world.  The emphasis of the request was to make sure that the technology roadmaps are supported with a wide range of instruments such as transparent regulatory frameworks, economic and fiscal incentives, and public/private partnerships to encourage private sector investments in new energy technologies.  The base for this request was the recognition that current trends in energy supply and use were clearly unsustainable – economically, environmentally and socially.  It was also realized that without decisive action, energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will more than double by 2050, increased oil demand will heighten concerns over the security of supplies and this was not acceptable to the G8 member countries.

After working with governments and industry in all major economies around the world and collaborating with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the IEA started responding to the request by developing a series of Energy Technology Roadmaps.   The domain of the roadmaps included 19 demand-side and supply-side technologies and the objective was to advance global development and uptake of key technologies needed to reach a 50 percent CO2 emissions reduction by 2050.  This article is dedicated to deal only with nuclear energy which is one of the 19 selected technologies.

Looking at the current capacity of nuclear energy, at the end of 2009, there were 436 power reactors in operation in 30 countries around the world, totalling 370 GW of installed nuclear capacity.  According to the graph presented below, the share of nuclear energy in countries with operating reactors ranges from less than 2 percent to more than 75 percent.  Overall, current nuclear power provides around 14 percent of global electricity.  Nuclear and hydropower are the only low-carbon sources presently providing significant amounts of energy.  It is interesting to note that the existing nuclear generation of electricity avoids annual CO2 emissions of about 2.9 billion tonnes compared to coal-fired generation, or about 24 percent of annual power sector emissions.

Here is a graph that illustrates the share of nuclear energy by each country around the world:

The share of Nuclear Power in Total Electricity, 2009 (%)

Note: Lithuania closed its only nuclear plant at the end of 2009 and now has no nuclear capacity

Source: IAEA PRIS

Looking at the future of nuclear energy, the following table demonstrates the Nuclear Power Plants under Construction, as at end 2009:

Source: IAEA PRIS

It is clear from the table presented above that at the end of 2009, 55 new power reactors were officially under construction in 15 countries which are expected to add around 50 GW of new capacity to existing capacity of 370 GW.  Of these, China had the largest programme, with 20 units under construction and Russia has 9 large units under construction.  Among OECD countries, Korea had the largest expansion underway with 6 units, but Finland, France, Japan and the Slovak Republic were each building one or two new units.  In the United States, a long-stalled nuclear project is reactivated.

Here is the Roadmap Action Plan.

The focus of the proposed Action Plan is on the deployments of the nuclear power technologies extensively in order to meet the targets that will take every major country and sector of the economy to make it happen.  The following table indicates the proposed estimated contributions that are expected from all stakeholders around the world:

Estimates from IEA ETP Model for Investment in Nuclear Energy in the BLUE MAP Scenario (Constant 2008 USD):

It is mentioned in the Technology Roadmap report that the estimated total investments (USD 3,974) in nuclear power represent about 19% of the total estimated investment in electricity generating capacity in BLUE Map of USD 21 trillion over the period.

A recent major study by the IEA and NEA of projected electricity generating costs for almost 200 proposed power plants in 17 OECD and 4 non-OECD countries for commissioning in 2015 found that nuclear electricity is generally competitive with other generating options on a “levelized” lifetime cost basis (IEA/NEA, 2010).  Despite this, in many cases financing the construction of new nuclear power plants is expected to be a major challenge, especially in the context of liberalized electricity markets (NEA, 2009).

The Technology Roadmap identified 23 action items that are classified into the following three categories:  Governments and other Public Bodies; The Nuclear and Electricity Supply Industries; and Other Stakeholders.  In the final analysis, while every action identified in the Roadmap is important for the overall success of the initiative, the following are considered to be the critical success factors:

1. Financing Nuclear Plants:

It is true that nuclear power plants are not only expensive but they also take a long time to build them.  Acquiring the very large investments for building nuclear power plants in many countries could present a major challenge.  However, the good news is that once those plants are in operation, they have relatively low and predictable fuel, operating and maintaining costs.   The new generation of reactors expected to be relatively less expensive and more efficient to generate cheaper electricity.  Furthermore, those reactors will also help reduce cumulative CO2 emissions from the electricity sector.  Following the example of the USA, government support, such as loan guarantees, may be needed in some cases to help secure large investments.  Price stability in electricity and carbon markets will also encourage investments in nuclear plants;

2.Investing in Research Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RDD&D):

It is true that billions of dollars are already invested in the research and development of nuclear technology around the world and the inventions of the 4th. Generation reactors and related technologies are an excellent example of those investments.  However, with the aggressive targets to accelerate the nuclear electricity around the world will require universities and research institutions to continue to support RD&D of advanced nuclear technology (Reactors and Fuel Cycles) to capture its long-term potential to provide sustainable energy with improved economics, enhanced safety and reliability, and stronger proliferation resistance and physical protection.  The focus here is to accelerate the overall RDD&D process in order to deliver an earlier uptake of the specific technology into the marketplace; and

3. Investing in Human Capital:

It is true that some visionary universities around the world are focused on teaching and training students to create a pool of nuclear expertise which could be deployed anywhere in the world.  However, there is a need for more universities to recognize the fact that the only way nuclear industry can be expanded if qualified human resources, including highly qualified scientists, engineers, and skilled craft people are available.  Utilities regulators, governments and other stakeholders will also need more nuclear specialists.  Industry recruitment and training programmes will need to be stepped up.  Governments and universities have a vital role to play in developing human resources.

Once again, this is indeed an excellent opportunity for the universities, colleges, and research institutions around the world to start thinking strategically about how best they can prepare themselves to face the future challenges associated with nuclear energy and develop their own roadmaps for capitalizing on unprecedented opportunities to participate in the energy economy.

mirali@aimamc.com